Search
Login
Subscribe
Archive
Subscribe
Cash & Chaos
September 25: Akamai lands $11.6B. Costco delivers.
Sep 25, 2026
September 25: Akamai lands $11.6B. Costco delivers.
15
30
00:00
18:28
1×
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Spotify
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Transcript
0:00
Welcome to Cash and Chaos. September 25, 2026. Akamai lands eleven point six billion dollars. Costco delivers. The opening bell. Akamai lands eleven point six billion dollars. Now comes the bill. Good morning.
0:17
Akamai landed an enormous AI contract. Costco delivered another growing quarter. BlackBerry raised its outlook as car software did more of the work.
0:28
The common thread is cash, when it arrives, what it costs to earn, and how much shareholders are paying for it. The Akamai and Costco announcements arrived after Thursday's close.
0:39
We also unpack BlackBerry's Thursday results, seven percent mortgages and a new lawsuit facing Polymarket.
0:47
S&P five hundred ETF seven hundred and sixty-seven dollars and eighteen cents minus zero point zero eight percent.
0:55
Nasdaq one hundred ETF seven hundred and forty-one dollars and ten cents minus zero point zero one percent. Dow ETF five hundred and twelve dollars and sixty-eight cents minus zero point three two percent.
1:08
September twenty-fourth US close. Changes versus September twenty-third. ETF prices, not index levels or live pre-market quotes. Zero one slash the big story Akamai. Akamai headquarters, 2019 file photo.
1:26
Photo flight aerial media/Akamai via Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 4.0. A huge customer. A very real cash gap.
1:38
Akamai announced a seven-year, eleven point six billion dollar agreement with Anthropic after Thursday's close. An expansion option could add approximately nine billion dollars. Keep those numbers separate.
1:51
The larger opportunity depends on additional commitments. The work supports Anthropic's demand for computing infrastructure. For Akamai, it is a substantial opportunity to build a bigger cloud business.
2:04
But the near-term economics look very different from the headline contract value. The spending arrives first. Management's investor presentation lays out the timing.
2:16
For fourth quarter 2026, project CapEx was dollar one point seven billion compared with none for project revenue.
2:24
For 2027, project CapEx was dollar three point one billion compared with one hundred and fifty to three hundred million dollars for project revenue.
2:34
For 2028, project CapEx was dollar zero point seven billion compared with ramping for project revenue. Company estimates as of September 24th, approximately five point five billion dollar total project CapEx.
2:50
Service starts late second quarter 2027. Full contracted revenue run rate expected by end 2028. At full scale, Akamai expects approximately one point seven billion dollars in annual revenue from the base agreement.
3:06
That could make the investment meaningful for years. It also leaves a period when equipment spending is substantial and revenue remains small. Contracted demand reduces, one, uncertainty.
3:19
It does not remove financing, delivery, or operating costs. There's a shareholder cost, too. Anthropic received warrants covering up to roughly five percent of Akamai's shares.
3:31
About two percent tied to the initial commitment, with the remainder linked to expansion. That is potential dilution under specified terms rather than an immediate five percent increase in the share count.
3:44
The SEC filing adds a supply chain detail. A Jabil arrangement authorizes approximately one point seven billion dollars of memory component procurement. Capacity needs hardware secured ahead of service delivery.
3:59
Investors should therefore track financing and equipment commitments alongside contract announcements.
4:06
Our read, the first test is whether the build stays within its capital budget and reaches service in late second quarter 2027.
4:14
A bigger backlog is valuable only if the resulting cash generation rewards the shareholders funding it. Zero two slash Costco after close earnings. Costco 2021 file photo.
4:28
Ambrosia Lafleur CC BY 2.0. The earnings grew. The refund helped.
4:35
Costco's fourth quarter results show ninety-five point seven two billion dollars of total revenue and six dollars and seventy-five cents in diluted earnings per share. The sixteen-week quarter ended August 30th.
4:50
Revenue includes one point eight five billion dollars of membership fees. Merchandise net sales alone were ninety-three point eight seven billion dollars.
5:00
Plus six point seven percent comparable sales, ex-fuel/FX, six dollars and seventy-five cents reported diluted earnings per share, fifteen cents non-recurring earnings per share benefit.
5:13
That fifteen-cent benefit came from tariff refunds after some was reinvested in member value.
5:19
Subtracting it gives six dollars and sixty cents, a simple calculation, not a company-issued adjusted earnings per share measure. It helps separate this quarter's windfall from earnings that might recur.
5:33
Look beneath the receipt. Membership fee revenue rose approximately seven point three percent, calculated from the reported figures.
5:43
Operating income increased about thirteen point eight percent faster than total revenues' roughly eleven point one percent growth.
5:51
Together, those numbers support a stronger case than sales growth alone, although the reported profit still includes the refund effect. The membership model gives Costco a reason to share savings with shoppers.
6:04
A good deal can bring the customer back and make renewing feel worthwhile. Keeping every extra dollar as margin might flatter one quarter while weakening that proposition.
6:15
Shareholders need to judge both the immediate profit and the durability of demand. The valuation leaves little room for complacency.
6:24
Thursday's eight hundred and ninety-six dollars and forty-eight cents close, divided by the newly reported twenty dollars and seventy-six cents full year earnings per share is approximately forty-three point two times trailing earnings.
6:38
That is our calculation using a pre-results share price, not a forward multiple or a live quote.
6:45
The next useful evidence, comparable sales excluding fuel and currency, membership growth and operating profit growth together.
6:54
A single strong quarter can support the business case without automatically making the stock inexpensive. Zero three slash BlackBerry, Thursday's earnings. Cars carry BlackBerry's growth.
7:07
BlackBerry's fiscal second quarter release deserves a closer look beyond Thursday's stock reaction.
7:13
Revenue rose twenty-six percent to one hundred and sixty-three point three million dollars, while operating cash flow reached twenty-nine point three million dollars. The quarter ended August thirty-first.
7:26
The results were released Thursday morning, plus twenty-seven percent QNX revenue growth, dollar eighty point three M QNX quarterly revenue.
7:36
Management raised its fiscal twenty twenty-seven revenue outlook to six hundred and sixteen to six hundred and thirty-six million dollars. QNX supplies software used in vehicles and other embedded systems.
7:50
Its growth matters because a software platform selected during vehicle development can earn royalties as those vehicles enter production. Winning the design is the beginning of that relationship.
8:02
Production volumes help determine the eventual payoff. Coratura, the Volvo Group, Daimler Truck Venture, selected Alloy Core for its commercial vehicle software platform.
8:14
BlackBerry says the win adds more than one hundred million dollars to QNX's royalty backlog. That represents expected future business, not one hundred million dollars of current quarter revenue.
8:27
The other division tells a different story. Secure communications grew revenue just two percent to sixty point nine million dollars, while its segment adjusted EBITDA fell eighteen percent to eight million dollars.
8:41
QNX's momentum, therefore, does not describe the whole company. The stronger outlook gives investors something measurable to assess.
8:50
The key is whether automotive programs turn into royalty revenue while the communications business protects profitability. One division can lift the group for a while.
9:01
A healthier mix would make that growth less dependent on a single engine. Read the measures separately. BlackBerry reported seven cents of adjusted basic earnings per share and six cents of GAAP basic earnings per share.
9:14
Revenue growth, cash generation and the segment split tell us more together than an earnings beat headline alone. The stock board completed session. Meta led. The chip trade was split. September twenty-fourth close.
9:29
Mag seven plus AMD, Broadcom and Micron. Our editorial watch list, not an official index. In the watch list for this recorded session, five stocks rose and five fell. Meta rose four point five percent.
9:45
AMD rose two point three eight percent. Alphabet rose one point three four percent. Meta gained four point five percent, while AMD rose two point three eight percent and Broadcom fell one point three percent.
10:01
Five of our ten stocks finished higher. A nearly flat Nasdaq one hundred ETF concealed very different outcomes underneath. AI stocks did not move as one trade. Zero four slash AI infrastructure still material.
10:17
Oracle puts the construction risk in writing. A consequential carryover from Thursday.
10:23
Reporting on Project Jupiter says Oracle sent a force majeure notice seeking protection from costs and payments if the New Mexico data center campus is not operational by twenty twenty-eight.
10:35
Oracle says the project remains on schedule. The distinction matters.
10:40
A notice asserting contractual protection does not establish that a project is canceled or already late, nor does the assertion alone prove the company will obtain the relief it seeks. Who carries the waiting time?
10:53
A data center needs equipment, power and a functioning building before it can serve customers. If opening slips, somebody must carry financing costs while revenue waits.
11:04
Contract terms help determine whether that burden sits with the tenant, developer or another counterparty. For Oracle shareholders, demand and delivery deserve separate scrutiny.
11:15
Customer commitments can be large while the physical capacity needed to fulfill them takes years to arrive. A protective clause might reduce one expense exposure without accelerating the revenue schedule.
11:29
Oracle closed Thursday down three point four seven percent.
11:34
The useful follow-up is a confirmed construction timetable and any disclosed change to payment obligations, not treating a legal notice as proof that the entire AI build-out has failed.
11:46
Zero cinque barra AI frontier per Alphabet e planet. Googleplex, 2019 file photo. Gregory Varnum, CC BY SA four point zero. Google's next chip test leaves Earth.
12:02
Google's September twenty-fourth Project Suncatcher update puts a concrete test behind its orbital computing idea.
12:08
A prototype satellite carrying TPUs, Google's AI processors on the upcoming SpaceX Transporter eighteen mission. Planet is the partner. Google says the first chips head to orbit next week.
12:22
The project was announced last year. This is a testing milestone. Engineers want to learn whether the hardware survives launch stresses and radiation, and whether its cooling system works in a vacuum.
12:35
There is no airflow in space to carry heat away. A later two-satellite test in twenty twenty-seven is intended to examine the links between spacecraft.
12:46
Running useful AI workloads across a fleet requires fast communication as well as working chips. Abundant sunlight does not by itself solve the whole computing problem.
12:58
The stock market relevance: Alphabet is exploring a long-term response to computing and power constraints. Planet gains a prominent development partnership. Neither fact supplies a near-term earnings forecast.
13:11
Flight results and a viable cost per unit of computing would make the commercial argument much stronger. Two more stocks on the radar. Rocket Lab/Iridium.
13:23
Iridium announced shareholder approval Thursday after the vote that morning. Closing is expected in mid twenty twenty-seven, subject to remaining conditions.
13:33
The consideration combines twenty-seven dollar cash with collared Rocket Lab stock. The fifty-four dollars notional total is not guaranteed cash. The approval advances the deal without completing it. GameStop.
13:48
Ryan Cohen's September twenty-first filing reports one million one hundred and fifty-six thousand and eighty shares bought at a weighted average twenty-two point nine three seven five dollars, approximately twenty-six point four million dollars.
14:02
This is Monday's purchase, still attracting attention rather than a new Friday transaction. Insider buying signals the buyer's conviction. It does not itself add revenue to the operating business.
14:16
Zero six slash upgrades and downgrades. Comcast gets a downgrade. Akamai gets a higher target. Comcast rating downgrade.
14:26
KeyBank moved Comcast from sector weight to underweight with an eighteen dollar target according to Friday's dated report. This changes the recommendation itself. Comcast target cut.
14:39
Citi lowered its target from thirty dollars to twenty-seven dollars and fifty cents while retaining buy reported overnight. The two calls show why analysts cut Comcast is incomplete.
14:50
One firm is negative on the rating, while another still sees a buying case at a lower valuation. AKAM target increase.
14:58
TD Cowen raised its target from one hundred and forty dollars to one hundred and forty-nine dollars and kept hold according to Friday's report.
15:07
A higher target alongside an unchanged neutral recommendation is not an upgrade. Targets become useful when you know what changed underneath, an earnings forecast, a valuation multiple, or both.
15:21
The actions above are reported calls. A target alone does not explain the full research argument. Zero seven slash prediction markets. New York challenges Polymarket's right to operate.
15:34
New York sued Polymarket US on Thursday, alleging that its event markets constitute unlicensed gambling. The state seeks an order stopping the alleged activity, financial penalties, and restitution.
15:48
These are allegations and requested remedies, not a court ruling. Polymarket's chief legal officer says the company will fight.
15:56
The dispute is part of the larger battle over federal regulation of event contracts versus state gambling authority. Our read, this matters to the economics of distribution.
16:08
A market can attract demand yet face limits on where it operates. For listed brokers and betting companies, changing access and compliance costs could reshape competition. The lawsuit alone does not establish a winner.
16:22
Rates watch. Calci's October Fed market displayed sixty-seven percent for a quarter point hike and thirty-two percent for no change at approximately six O eight AM Eastern Time on September twenty-fifth.
16:36
Trader implied probabilities, other outcomes, and rounding apply. Zero eight slash macro in a minute. Seven percent mortgages put housing stocks back in focus.
16:48
Freddie Mac's September twenty-fourth weekly survey puts the average thirty-year fixed mortgage at seven point zero three percent versus six point nine five percent a week earlier and six point three percent a year ago.
17:02
This is a survey average, not a loan offer or an intraday quote.
17:06
For a hypothetical four hundred thousand dollar loan over thirty years, that year-over-year rate change adds approximately one hundred and ninety-three dollars a month in principal and interest with taxes and insurance excluded.
17:20
That is our calculation holding the loan amount fixed. For builders such as D.R. Horton and Lennar, the pressure can appear in slower orders or more costly buyer incentives.
17:31
For home improvement retailers, fewer moves can weigh on renovation demand. Watch order growth and margins together. Supporting sales through discounts can come at a profit cost. Crypto stocks, briefly.
17:44
Thursday's equity returns diverged. Strategy fell zero point three six percent, Bitmine rose two point zero eight percent, and Coinbase gained zero point five five percent.
17:56
These are completed session stock moves, not live Bitcoin or Ether quotes. Different financing structures and operating businesses make the shares imperfect substitutes for the coins. You're caught up.
18:09
Have a good weekend. Cash in Chaos back next market session. Pass it on. Know someone who follows the market? Forward them this email or copy and share your personal referral link. Got this from a friend?
18:23
That's Cash in Chaos. Find a full edition and original sources in the show notes.
New episodes, straight to your inbox.
Subscribe
