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Cash & Chaos
September 17: The Fed raised rates. Futures rose anyway.
Sep 17, 2026
September 17: The Fed raised rates. Futures rose anyway.
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Transcript
0:00
Welcome to Cash and Chaos. September seventeenth, twenty twenty-six. The Fed raised rates. Futures rose anyway. The Fed hikes. Futures find their feet. The Fed raised rates by twenty-five basis points yesterday.
0:16
Stocks finished lower. This morning, futures are trying to rebound as oil retreats. Wall Street has moved from guessing the decision to debating how much tightening comes next.
0:28
Today, the new rate path, a bruised sector map, Amazon's generator deal, and a home builder showing what expensive money looks like on an income statement. First checkpoint, eight thirty AM Eastern time.
0:42
Jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philadelphia Fed Survey are still ahead in this pre-release edition. The big story. One hike down. The dots point to another.
0:55
The Fed voted twelve to zero to lift its target range to three point seven five percent to four point zero zero percent.
1:03
Its statement described solid economic activity and resilient spending, while making clear that inflation remains elevated.
1:11
The median year-end rate projection is now four point one percent versus three point eight percent in June. That is consistent with one more quarter point hike this year.
1:22
The twenty twenty-seven median is also four point one percent up from three point six percent. These are policymakers projections, not promised moves.
1:33
The Fed also raised its twenty twenty-six growth forecast to two point three percent and its PCE inflation forecast to three point seven percent.
1:43
Our read, officials see enough economic resilience to keep fighting inflation even while rate sensitive businesses feel the squeeze.
1:53
Cash, bullish case cooling inflation and steady growth could let earnings support stocks through a modest tightening cycle.
2:01
Chaos, bearish case persistent inflation could keep borrowing costs elevated and pressure valuations for longer. Market reset, Wednesday close. The Dow took the harder hit.
2:13
S&P five hundred minus zero point four five percent, seven thousand five hundred fifty-one point eight one. Nasdaq minus zero point zero one percent, twenty-five thousand nine hundred and seventy-eight point four two.
2:28
Dow minus one point two one percent, fifty-one thousand four hundred and sixty-one point nine zero. The Dow lost six hundred and thirty-one points. The Nasdaq finished almost flat. Small caps also slipped.
2:41
The Russell two thousand fell zero point four percent to two thousand eight hundred and fifty-eight point eight one. The market gave up its earlier gains after the Fed decision and press conference.
2:53
Wednesday's sector heat map. Energy went from leader to laggard. Tech plus zero point one two percent XLK. Healthcare plus zero point zero seven percent XLV. Utility plus zero point zero two percent XLU.
3:10
Industrials minus zero point one percent XLI. Staples minus zero point four four percent XLP. Real estate minus zero point six three percent XLRE.
3:25
Discretionary minus zero point six five percent XLY. Materials minus zero point six nine percent XLB. Communication minus zero point nine percent XLC.
3:40
Financials minus one point six percent XLF. Energy minus two point eight five percent XLE. Breadth three up slash eight down ETF proxies. Energy and financials led the declines.
3:57
Technology, healthcare, and utilities managed small gains. These are sector ETF moves for September sixteenth as reported by Chartro. They can differ from official sector index returns. Mover watch.
4:12
Power demand meets delivery risk. GNRC, Amazon wants backup. Generac expects initial generator deliveries to Amazon worth two point four billion dollars in twenty twenty-seven to twenty twenty-eight.
4:27
Amazon also received warrants for up to one point six nine million shares, with most vesting tied to payments. The eight billion dollar payment threshold in the warrant terms is not guaranteed revenue.
4:40
FLNC, a sharp guidance reset. Fluence cut expected fiscal twenty twenty-six revenue to about two point four billion dollars from a three point zero billion dollar prior midpoint.
4:52
It now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of about two hundred million dollars versus a ten million dollar loss midpoint before citing US production delays.
5:02
Our read, demand for power infrastructure can be strong while individual suppliers struggle to turn orders into shipments and cash. Futures and odds. A rebound with another hike still in play.
5:16
At four forty-five AM Eastern Time, Reuters reported Dow futures up zero point six six percent, S&P five hundred futures up zero point seven four percent, and Nasdaq one hundred futures up zero point nine six percent.
5:31
These are early snapshots, not live quotes. The same morning report put the CME implied chance of an October hike at fifty-one percent versus roughly forty-four percent a day earlier.
5:43
Rising futures and rising hike odds can coexist. Traders may welcome a firmer inflation response while still pricing tighter policy. Earnings breakdown. Lennar, keeping homes affordable costs money.
5:58
Lennar reported quarterly revenue of eight point zero billion dollars and GAAP earnings of one dollar and nineteen cents a share versus two dollars and twenty-nine cents a year earlier.
6:09
New orders fell nine percent and deliveries fell three percent. The pressure shows up in pricing.
6:16
Incentives were approximately twelve percent, while home sales gross margin came in at fifteen-point-eight percent, down from seventeen-point-five percent a year earlier.
6:26
Management lowered its full-year delivery target to eighty thousand to eighty-one thousand homes from eighty-two thousand to eighty-three thousand.
6:36
Cash, bullish case construction cost per square foot fell six percent year over year. Better execution gives Lennar a way to absorb some pricing pressure. Chaos.
6:47
Bearish case incentives and lower delivery expectations show affordability is still limiting demand. Higher borrowing costs could prolong that strain. Listen at eleven AM Eastern time.
7:00
How much more support will buyers need, and what does that mean for margins? Oil watch. Cheaper than yesterday. Still above one hundred dollars.
7:09
At four AM Eastern Time, Reuters put Brent at one hundred and four dollars and seventy-four cents and WTI at one hundred and one dollars and sixty cents, down about one percent and zero point eight percent respectively.
7:23
Both have fallen roughly three dollars on Wednesday. Reports of additional Saudi cargoes moving through Oman ease supply concerns, but repairs to damaged pumping stations on the East West pipeline remain uncertain.
7:38
Alternative shipments help. They do not establish that normal capacity has returned. Our read, sustained oil relief would help transportation costs and the inflation outlook.
7:49
One morning's decline is too little to settle either question. Street talk. Wednesday's calls. A rail upgrade. A home builder downgrade. UNP.
8:00
UBS upgraded Union Pacific from neutral to buy with a three hundred and thirty-nine dollar price target. SMWB. Needham upgraded Similarweb from hold to buy with an eleven dollar target. MTH.
8:13
Truist downgraded Meritage Homes from buy to hold with a seventy-two dollar target. These calls are from briefing.com, September sixteenth, eight:１７ AM Eastern Time board.
8:26
Targets are analyst opinions, not expected returns. On deck, all times Eastern. The next test arrives at eight thirty.
8:34
Eight: thirty AM, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey, and August housing starts and building permits. Ten AM, August pending home sales. Eleven AM, Lennar earnings call.
8:50
Watch whether labor demand remains firm, whether factories still report pricing pressure, and whether housing activity confirms the weakness described by builders.
9:00
Together, those releases will help frame the next rate debate. Last word. The hike happened. Now watch the follow through. A durable rebound needs more than relief that the Fed meeting is over.
9:14
Watch oil, borrowing costs, and the breadth of stock gains. The next clues arrive before the opening bell. That's cash and chaos. Find the full edition and original sources in the show notes.
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