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Cash & Chaos
October 7: Marvell sees $20B. Micron faces a strike threat.
Oct 7, 2026
October 7: Marvell sees $20B. Micron faces a strike threat.
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0:00
Welcome to Cash and Chaos. October seventh, twenty twenty-six. Marvell sees twenty billion dollars. Micron faces a strike threat. Good morning. Marvell is raising its sales ambitions.
0:14
Micron is dealing with a threat to production, and Shell is showing what expensive fuel can do for a refiner's margins. Futures are lower this morning, and both chip stocks are giving ground before the bell.
0:27
Penguin is heading the other way after raising its sales outlook.
0:31
Before the bell, minus zero point three seven percent S and P five hundred and seven thousand eight hundred and forty-four point seven five, minus zero point six eight percent NASDAQ one hundred and thirty-one thousand two hundred and sixty-nine point five zero, minus zero point six eight percent Dow fifty-one thousand four hundred and sixty-two point zero zero.
0:53
December futures October seventh, eight O二 AM Eastern Time delayed Yahoo Finance quotes. Change versus prior close. The big story MRVL. Marvell thinks twenty billion dollars is now within reach.
1:10
Marvell, Santa Clara two thousand and eleven. King of Hearts slash Wikimedia Commons. CC BY SA three point zero.
1:20
Marvell went into Tuesday's Investor Day expecting about eighteen billion dollars of revenue in fiscal twenty twenty-eight. It came out expecting twenty billion dollars.
1:30
Shares finished five point eight one percent higher at two hundred and eighty-seven dollars and one cent.
1:37
But we're giving back about one point five seven percent at eight twelve AM Eastern time in Yahoo Finance's pre-market feed.
1:45
That is an extra two billion dollars of expected annual sales, or roughly an eleven percent increase in the forecast.
1:53
Analysts have been looking for about eighteen point two billion dollars according to LSEG figures in Yahoo Finance's report.
2:01
The company also raised its fiscal twenty twenty-nine custom chip revenue target to more than twelve billion dollars from more than ten billion dollars. The biggest number came further out.
2:13
Management sees seventy billion dollars to ninety billion dollars of annual revenue in fiscal twenty thirty-one.
2:20
At the midpoint, that would be nearly ten times fiscal twenty twenty success eight point two billion dollars.
2:27
It is an ambitious management target, with several years of customer spending and product launches still ahead. Marvell has two ways into that spending.
2:37
It helps customers develop their own processors, and it sells technology that moves data between chips and across data centers. A cloud company designing an alternative to Nvidia can still need Marvell's help.
2:50
A customer buying more Nvidia systems can also need faster connections around them. Connectivity drove the latest increase to the near-term forecast.
3:01
That makes this more interesting than a distant promise about custom chips. Marvell is pointing to demand across the machinery that keeps those chips busy.
3:11
Its latest reported quarter gives us a starting point, two point seven four billion dollars of revenue and four hundred and sixty million dollars of operating income in fiscal second quarter, according to its quarterly filing.
3:25
Getting to the new annual targets requires that business to become substantially larger. The immediate change is the higher fiscal twenty twenty-eight forecast.
3:35
The fiscal twenty thirty-one numbers explain management's ambition but shouldn't do all the work in anyone's valuation.
3:42
The Investor Day discussion is useful because it separates the connectivity, custom chip, and supplier capacity assumptions behind the plan. Memory Micron. Micron has buyers. Now it needs to keep the factories running.
3:57
Micron separate Taichung site twenty twenty-three. Thing Greenline forty-five forty-six slash Wikimedia Commons. CC BY SA four point zero. Micron has spent the past few quarters trying to produce enough memory.
4:13
This morning, investors have another supply question, whether a labor dispute in Taiwan turns into a strike. The union at its Taoyuan operations has secured authorization to strike.
4:25
Reuters reported that one thousand nine hundred and ninety-four votes were cast, with ninety-nine percent supporting action. The timing was still being discussed.
4:35
That is a mandate to act, not confirmation that production has stopped.
4:40
Shares were around one thousand eighteen dollars and thirty-nine cents, down two point six percent from Tuesday's close at eight twelve AM Eastern Time in Yahoo Finance's pre-market feed.
4:52
The labor news comes on a weaker morning for chip stocks more broadly. Taiwan matters because Micron manufacturers DRAM and high-bandwidth memory there. DRAM is the working memory used in computers and servers.
5:05
High-bandwidth memory sits alongside powerful AI processors to feed them data quickly. A memory shortage can constrain the usefulness of a much more expensive chip. The location matters, too.
5:18
Micron has around fifteen thousand employees in Taiwan, with separate unions in Taoyuan and Taichung. The vote covers Taoyuan rather than the entire Taiwan workforce.
5:30
Mediation there ended without agreement in September, while talks in Taichung were continuing, Reuters reported. For shareholders, the next important update is operational. Will action actually be called?
5:44
Which facilities would it affect? And can shipments continue? A settlement that raises labor costs has a different financial effect from misproduction. For now, the size and duration of any disruption remain unknown.
5:59
There is a wider tension here. Strong demand gives suppliers more pricing power, but also makes dependable output more valuable. Micron's customers need memory delivered on schedule, not just reserved on a contract.
6:14
This dispute puts that delivery question back in focus. Energy. Oh, Shell. Expensive fuel is doing Shell a favor. Shell Pernis Refinery, two thousand nineteen. Steven Lech slash Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0.
6:31
Shell delivered a fresh reminder this morning that an oil shock has winners as well as losers.
6:37
Its indicative refining margin jumped to forty-two dollars a barrel in third quarter from twenty-four dollars in second quarter, according to its Wednesday update, reported by Proactive.
6:49
That is a seventy-five percent increase. This measures the economics of turning crude into products such as gasoline and diesel. It is a margin indicator, not Shell's final profit on every barrel.
7:02
But the direction matters. Tighter fuel supplies can allow finished product prices to rise faster than the crude that goes into them.
7:10
Disruption in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries have helped squeeze those supplies, Dow Jones reported.
7:18
That makes refining an important part of the earnings story, alongside the price Shell receives for oil and gas it produces. There are offsets.
7:27
Shell's indicative chemicals margin fell to two hundred eight dollars a ton from two hundred seventy dollars, while refinery utilization is expected at ninety-three percent to ninety-seven percent.
7:40
Low Rhine water levels affected its Rhineland refinery. A stronger margin cannot fully help a plant that cannot run at the same rate.
7:49
Watch the refining contribution when Shell reports full results on October twenty-ninth.
7:54
The update gives investors a concrete reason to expect strength there, while chemicals show why it would be premature to assume every division enjoyed the same quarter.
8:04
For US investors, it also gives a useful question to take into domestic refiners' earnings. How much of the improvement in fuel margins reach their income statements?
8:15
Shell's result will not answer that for everyone, but it shows where to look. The Stock Board: Where Big Tech Finished. Tuesday, October sixth, close USD daily change.
8:27
Mag seven plus AMD, Broadcom and Micron, our editorial watchlist. In the watchlist for this recorded session, eight stocks rose and two fell. Broadcom rose three point six seven percent. AMD rose two point eight percent.
8:45
Amazon rose one point nine five percent. Broadcom and AMD led this group. These are regular session closes, separate from the pre-market quotes above. Earnings chirping. Penguin sales jumped.
9:01
Memory did the heavy lifting. Penguin reported five hundred sixty-seven million dollars in quarterly sales, up sixty-eight percent after Tuesday's close.
9:11
Adjusted earnings rose to one dollar a share from forty-three cents a year earlier.
9:17
The stock was around sixty-seven dollars and fifty cents, up five point one two percent at eight:12 AM Eastern Time in Yahoo Finance's pre-market feed. The segment table explains the acceleration.
9:31
Integrated memory sales rose to three hundred forty point eight million dollars from one hundred thirty-two point two million dollars.
9:39
That accounts for about ninety-one percent of the company's year-over-year dollar sales increase, calculated from the reported figures.
9:47
Advanced Computing grew more modestly to one hundred fifty-four million dollars from one hundred thirty-eight point three million dollars.
9:55
Management now expects fiscal twenty-twenty-seven sales of approximately two point four three billion dollars at the midpoint, up from its earlier two point one seven billion dollar view, and adjusted earnings per share of four dollars and forty-five cents, plus or minus seventy cents.
10:13
It also reported six new AI infrastructure customers in fourth quarter, including four specialist cloud providers.
10:21
The business is benefiting from data center demand, but memory is doing much of the work in the current numbers.
10:29
Keep the segment breakdown alongside the new outlook when judging how quickly the AI infrastructure business is catching up. AI financing for SpaceX, Barra, Nvidia.
10:42
Musk's next chip order may come with a forty billion dollar financing package. Nvidia Headquarters, two thousand eighteen. Cool Caesar, edit by Jacek Halicki slash Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0.
10:58
SpaceX is seeking about forty billion dollars to purchase Nvidia chips, the Financial Times reported Tuesday evening, according to Reuters.
11:08
The proposed package includes roughly ten billion dollars in bank loans and thirty billion dollars in investment-grade debt. Apollo is expected to lead the financing, with Pimco among the lenders in discussions.
11:21
The reported transaction is expected to close in twenty-twenty-seven. SpaceX, Apollo, and Nvidia had not immediately responded to Reuters. Pimco declined to comment.
11:33
For Nvidia holders, this gives a specific potential use for the financing, another large hardware purchase. For Apollo, it would be another role arranging capital for the AI build-out.
11:46
The terms and participants remain reported negotiations rather than a completed transaction. The size also makes financing conditions part of the chip demand story.
11:57
Customers may want more computing capacity, but someone has to supply the capital on terms they can afford. That connects the next wave of AI spending directly to banks and bond investors. Macro in a minute.
12:11
What the Fed was thinking. The Fed's September meeting minutes arrive at two PM Eastern time today. They should give investors more detail on the debate behind the last rate increase. They're not a new rate decision.
12:24
The useful question is how much evidence policymakers wanted before moving again. That matters for long-duration technology shares, as well as banks and housing.
12:35
With oil adding inflation pressure, the discussion of persistence versus temporary supply shocks deserves attention. Prediction markets. A hold is still the favorite.
12:46
Polymarket's October Fed contracts priced no change at eighty-two point five percent and a quarter-point increase at sixteen point five percent, using prices updated around eight O six AM Eastern Time.
13:00
Other outcomes account for small additional prices. Separate contracts need not add to exactly one hundred percent. A hold remains the favorite ahead of today's minutes.
13:11
These are traders' prices, not a central bank forecast. The contracts resolve against the change in the upper bound of the Fed's target range after the October meeting. Upgrades and downgrades.
13:23
Two rating changes with a twist. UBS made two Wednesday rating changes according to Street Insider's Morning Reports. Moelis upgraded to neutral from sell, but the target fell to fifty-nine dollars from sixty dollars.
13:39
The bank sees less downside after the stock's valuation reset. AppFolio downgraded to neutral from buy, even as the target rose to two hundred and twenty dollars from two hundred dollars.
13:51
UBS pointed to valuation after the recovery in the shares. An upgraded rating does not always come with a higher target and vice versa. Crypto snapshot. Coinbase is bringing Pro back. Coinbase Pro is coming back.
14:06
Coinbase plans to relaunch the professional platform by year-end after completing its derivative integration, the Block reported overnight.
14:15
The expansion into derivatives gives it more ways to earn trading fees beyond spot crypto. Announced products and access will roll out in stages.
14:25
Bitcoin was around eighty-three thousand five hundred and ninety-eight dollars and Ether two thousand five hundred and seventy-nine dollars at eight十二 AM Eastern Time according to Yahoo Finance's spot feed. Pass it on.
14:39
That's cash and chaos. Find the full edition and original sources in the show notes.
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