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Cash & Chaos
October 18: SpaceX goes first. Tesla and Meta are next.
Oct 18, 2026
October 18: SpaceX goes first. Tesla and Meta are next.
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0:00
Welcome to Cash and Chaos. October eighteenth, twenty twenty-six. SpaceX goes first. Tesla and Meta are next. Happy Sunday. This week, the spending gets a hearing. SpaceX and Tesla report a day apart.
0:16
Meta has to explain how much of its advertising cash survives the AI build-out. Netflix gets its first earnings call since announcing a new content chief. Then come two companies selling the infrastructure.
0:29
Lam Research supplies chip-making equipment. Bloom Energy supplies power. Their order books will help test whether customers are still spending as confidently as they sound.
0:40
Here's the October nineteenth to twenty-third watch list. Zero one slash Tuesday. SpaceX needs to show what the build-out earns. Hawthorne facility two thousand twelve archive. SpaceX slash Wikimedia CC zero.
0:57
SpaceX reports Tuesday after the close with its webcast at four thirty p.m. Eastern Time. The question is how much of its growth is turning into cash.
1:08
Expected eleven cents earnings per share on twelve point five nine billion dollar revenue. Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one a.m. Eastern Time. For SpaceX, start with Starlink.
1:22
Subscriber additions matter, but so do the revenue earned from each customer, equipment subsidies, and the cost of maintaining the constellation. A bigger customer base is most valuable when servicing it becomes cheaper.
1:36
Separate recurring connectivity revenue from launch revenue, where a handful of missions can shift the quarterly total.
1:43
What management said last time: on its August fourth call, SpaceX targeted more than two gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end versus one point four gigawatts at June end.
1:55
Tuesday should show progress toward that target and whether new hosting revenue is keeping pace with the build-out. Capacity alone does not establish profitability. Zero two slash Wednesday. Tesla has delivered the cars.
2:11
Now show the margins. Fremont Factory archive. Maurizio Pesce slash Wikimedia CC by two point zero. Tesla's volume is already on the table. Four hundred eighty-six thousand five hundred thirty-two vehicles delivered.
2:28
Four hundred sixty-four thousand three hundred ninety-one produced, and thirteen point seven GWh of energy storage deployed in third quarter. Wednesday explains what those deliveries earned.
2:40
The first number to find is automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. Strong deliveries accompanied by heavier incentives can leave shareholders with less profit per car.
2:53
Expected forty-four cents non-GAAP earnings per share on twenty-seven point seven eight billion dollar revenue. Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one a.m. Eastern Time.
3:04
Tesla already warned that spending would accelerate.
3:08
Its second-quarter filing projected more than twenty-five billion dollars of twenty twenty-six capital expenditure against eight point two eight billion dollars spent in the first half.
3:18
That implies more than sixteen point seven billion dollars in the second half if the plan holds. Wednesday should explain the funding and cash flow consequences. A Roadster update could dominate the headlines.
3:31
A clear improvement in margins would do more to answer the investment question. Key product timelines separate from revenue already earned, and listen for measurable milestones rather than another date that can move.
3:44
On the second quarter call, Tesla also described normalized energy gross margins in the low to mid twenty percent range.
3:53
Compare third quarter with that expectation rather than assuming an earlier unusually strong margin will return. The thirteen point seven GWh deployment figure tells us the volume. Wednesday supplies the economics.
4:07
Zero three slash Wednesday. Meta's ad machine has a very expensive passenger. Meta headquarters twenty twenty-three archive. Invading Invader slash Wikimedia CC BY-SA four point zero.
4:23
Meta reports Wednesday after the close. The last quarter explains why the spending discussion could matter as much as the revenue beat.
4:33
Second quarter revenue climbed twenty-eight percent to sixty point eight billion dollars, yet operating margin fell to thirty-one percent from forty-three percent. Costs grew faster than sales.
4:46
Legal and severance charges also inflated expenses. The entire margin decline cannot be attributed to AI investment.
4:54
Expected six dollars and fifty-four cents earnings per share on sixty-three point two four billion dollar revenue. Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one a.m. Eastern Time. The advertising engine was doing its job.
5:10
Impressions rose fourteen percent and average prices increased twelve percent. But capital expenditure, including finance lease principal, reached thirty-one point one billion dollars.
5:23
Free cash flow was just seven hundred eighty-four million dollars. Those are reported second quarter figures, not forecast for Wednesday.
5:32
Management's prior bar, sixty-one billion dollars to sixty-four billion dollars of third-quarter revenue, one hundred sixty-five billion dollars to one hundred sixty-nine billion dollars of full year expenses, and one hundred thirty billion dollars to one hundred forty-five billion dollars of capital expenditure, including finance lease principal.
5:52
The gap sixty-three point two four billion dollar consensus is seven hundred forty million dollars or one point two percent above the sixty-two point five billion dollar midpoint.
6:04
Merely reaching the midpoint would miss the Street's expectation. A beat matters more if the spending plan holds. Management also expected twenty twenty-six operating income to exceed twenty twenty-five.
6:18
That is a useful commitment to revisit after second quarter operating profit fell. Watch ad pricing, expense growth, and any first indication of the twenty twenty-seven investment bill. The investor debate.
6:31
In October second commentary, Smead Capital argued that AI infrastructure could leave Meta with lower returns on capital than its software business historically earned. That is an investor's thesis, not company guidance.
6:45
Wednesday's question: Is additional ad profit keeping pace with the money committed to infrastructure? Revenue growth alone cannot settle that. Zero four slash Tuesday.
6:58
Netflix has numbers to report and a new boss for content. Netflix offices, two thousand and nineteen archive. Cool Caesar slash Wikimedia CC BY-SA 4.0.
7:11
Netflix reports Tuesday with results scheduled around four:zero-one PM Eastern Time and its interview at four forty-five.
7:20
Last week, it named Peter Rice Chief Content Officer, replacing Bela Bajaria effective October twenty-sixth. That gives management more to discuss than the usual quarterly scorecard.
7:32
Expected eighty-two cents earnings per share on twelve point eight seven billion dollar revenue. Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one AM Eastern Time.
7:44
Rice will oversee film, scripted and unscripted television, and live programming. The appointment is a change across the content business, not just one genre.
7:55
Listen for whether priorities, spending, or decision-making will change. A new executive's arrival does not automatically mean a larger budget.
8:04
Netflix's own third quarter forecast was twelve point eight six billion dollars of revenue, eighty-two cents diluted earnings per share, and a thirty-three point two percent operating margin.
8:16
The gap, twelve point eight seven billion dollar consensus, is just ten million dollars or zero point zero eight percent above the revenue forecast. Delivering the guide would come close to expectations.
8:30
Margin delivery and the holiday quarter outlook may tell us more. Last quarter, Netflix expected slower content amortization growth in the second half and roughly three billion dollars of annual advertising revenue.
8:44
Check whether those assumptions still support its thirty-one point five percent full year operating margin target. That gives Rice a financial starting point as well as a programming brief. Zero five slash Wednesday.
8:59
Lam gets a turn to explain the chip spending. Lam Research, Bengaluru, twenty twenty-four archive. Gpkp slash Wikimedia CC BY-SA 4.0. Lam Research reports Wednesday with its call at five PM Eastern Time.
9:16
After the chipmakers updates, this is a chance to hear from a company that sells the equipment used to build their products.
9:23
Expected two dollars and seventeen cents earnings per share on eight point one two billion dollar revenue. Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one AM Eastern Time.
9:35
Lam's September quarter guidance, revenue of eight point one billion dollars plus or minus four hundred million dollars, non-GAAP earnings per share of two dollars and fifteen cents plus or minus fifteen cents, and non-GAAP gross margin of fifty-two percent plus or minus one percentage point.
9:55
The gap, eight point one two billion dollar consensus is twenty million dollars or zero point two five percent above the eight point one billion dollar midpoint.
10:05
Results could land inside the guided range and still miss consensus. Watch the December outlook and whether memory and foundry demand support another step up.
10:15
Management also warned that its tax rate would rise to the mid-teens in September and likely remain higher. That can absorb some operating improvement. Zero six slash Thursday.
10:28
Bloom needs to keep turning demand into cash. Bloom fuel cells at eBay archive. Jakub Mosoer slash Bloom Energy slash Wikimedia CC BY two point zero. Bloom Energy reports Thursday after the close.
10:44
Its last quarter set a high bar, revenue of one point zero six five billion dollars, up one hundred and sixty-five point five percent, and two hundred and twenty-six point four million dollars of operating cash flow.
10:58
Management raised full year revenue guidance to three point nine billion dollars to four point two billion dollars. Expected seventy-one cents non-GAAP earnings per share on one point zero seven billion dollar revenue.
11:13
Consensus checked Sunday eleven:twenty-one AM Eastern Time.
11:18
The full year commitments also included about thirty-four percent non-GAAP gross margin, eight hundred million dollars to nine hundred million dollars of non-GAAP operating income, and two dollars and fifty-five cents to two dollars and eighty-five cents of non-GAAP earnings per share.
11:35
Thursday tests how much work remains for fourth quarter. Compare revenue conversion, gross margin, and operating cash flow with the second quarter baseline.
11:45
A growing backlog is useful, but installations and customer payments determine how quickly it becomes a business result.
11:54
On its July call, management tied delivery timing to customer site readiness and said the annual revenue outlook did not depend on any single project. Ask whether delayed installations are being replaced by other orders.
12:07
The call begins at five PM Eastern Time Thursday. Save the dates. The numbers these eight need to clear. Earnings whispers consensus checked October 18th at eleven twenty-one AM Eastern Time USD.
12:23
These are analyst estimates separate from the site's proprietary whisper numbers. Times refer to the US market session.
12:31
For GE, Tuesday before, earnings per share EST was two dollars and two cents compared with twelve point six five billion dollars for revenue EST.
12:41
For Netflix, Tuesday after, earnings per share EST was eighty-two cents compared with twelve point eight seven billion dollars for revenue EST.
12:51
For SpaceX, Tuesday after, earnings per share EST was eleven cents compared with twelve point five nine billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:02
For Tesla, Wed after, earnings per share EST was dollar zero point forty-four asterisk, compared with twenty-seven point seven eight billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:13
For Meta, Wed after, earnings per share EST was six dollars and fifty-four cents compared with sixty-three point two four billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:25
For Lam, Wed after, earnings per share EST was two dollars and seventeen cents compared with eight point one two billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:35
For Bloom, Thursday after, earnings per share EST was dollar zero point seventy-one asterisk compared with one point zero seven billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:47
For Amex, Friday before, earnings per share EST was four dollars and forty-seven cents compared with twenty point one three billion dollars for revenue EST.
13:59
Periods, third quarter twenty twenty-six except Lam's fiscal first quarter twenty twenty-seven. Asterisk explicitly labeled non-GAAP by the source. Other rows do not disclose an earnings per share basis.
14:12
Estimates can change.
14:14
GE, July's raised annual outlook included seven dollars and sixty-five cents to seven dollars and eighty-five cents adjusted earnings per share and eight point nine billion dollars to nine point two billion of free cash flow.
14:30
Watch whether engine service output supports those targets despite equipment and inflation costs. American Express.
14:38
Management raised annual revenue growth guidance to ten percent but kept earnings per share at seventeen dollars and thirty cents to seventeen dollars and ninety cents, planning to reinvest the extra revenue.
14:51
A sales beat may therefore come with higher marketing and customer benefit costs. Company catalysts. Boeing's wait could finally end.
15:00
Reuters reported Friday that FAA certification of Boeing's Seven Thirty-Seven Max Ten could come in the week ahead. Approval is still pending.
15:10
The model accounts for nearly one thousand five hundred orders, roughly thirty percent of Boeing's Seven Thirty-Seven backlog, according to the report. Certification would remove a major obstacle to deliveries.
15:24
It would not turn the entire order book into immediate revenue. Production, customer acceptance, and cash collection still follow. Watch for the FAA's actual decision before treating this as completed.
15:38
Also on the calendar, Cloudflare Connect, October nineteenth to twenty-first.
15:43
Product announcements earn attention here when they change customer spending, pricing or distribution, not simply because the keynote contains AI. Options context. Last quarter was a reminder about earnings gaps.
15:58
Tesla and Meta both fell sharply between their second quarter release day close and the following close. Stock, twenty twenty-six dates. Close to close. Tesla, Jul twee-en-twintig, drie-en-twintig.
16:13
Minus veertien komma vijf twee percent. Meta, Jul negen-en-twintig, dertig. Minus zeven komma negen vijf percent. These are historical share price moves, not this week's options implied ranges.
16:27
They include everything affecting the stock during the interval, not just earnings. Current chains could not be verified for this edition.
16:36
For an October twenty-third expiry, a near the money call plus put premium divided by the stock price would give a rough straddle-based move through expiry.
16:46
It includes the remaining trading days and says nothing about direction. Quote time, spread, and expiry matter. Last quarter's drop is no substitute for that calculation. The starting point.
16:59
Where big tech enters the week. Friday, October sixteenth closes in USD. Weekly change, October ninth to sixteenth, using comparable adjusted closes.
17:11
Mag seven plus AMD, Broadcom and Micron, our editorial watch list. In the watch list for this week, one stock rose and nine fell. Micron fell fourteen point five nine percent. AMD fell thirteen point zero five percent.
17:30
Broadcom fell nine point zero seven percent. Macro. The Fed decision is next week's problem. The next scheduled Fed decision is October twenty-eighth, outside this preview.
17:42
This week's housing starts and building permits arrive Tuesday at eight thirty AM Eastern Time. Starts measure construction getting underway. Permits offer a look at the pipeline.
17:54
For home builders and building product suppliers, watch whether expensive financing is restraining activity. For the earnings names above, keep an eye on Treasury yields.
18:05
Financing costs can change the economics of an expansion even when customer demand holds up. Predictions and the street. Friday's upgrades and a deal to watch. Tesla, SpaceX speculation.
18:18
The merger announcement contract is a watch list item, not evidence of a deal. Check its exact deadline and resolution rules. A friendly comment on an earnings call is not necessarily a qualifying announcement.
18:32
The page lists several deadlines, including December thirty-first, twenty twenty-six. No fresh executable price is quoted here.
18:41
Fox, B of A upgraded underperform to buy on Friday, October sixteenth, raising its target to eighty-five dollars from fifty-four dollars. That is a change in recommendation as well as valuation.
18:55
Zeta Global, Goldman Sachs upgraded neutral to buy on October sixteenth with a forty-five dollar target. Both calls predate the weekend. Neither is a new Sunday upgrade. Price targets are the respective firms' estimates.
19:10
That's cash and chaos. Find the full edition and original sources in the show notes
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