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Cash & Chaos
October 14: ASML can’t build fast enough. BofA misses.
Oct 14, 2026
October 14: ASML can’t build fast enough. BofA misses.
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0:00
Welcome to Cash and Chaos. October fourteenth, twenty twenty-six. ASML can't build fast enough. B of A misses. Good morning. ASML's problem is finding enough machines for everyone who wants one.
0:15
Bank of America's is explaining why stronger lending income did not produce a better quarter. BlackRock, meanwhile, collected another two hundred five billion dollars of client money.
0:27
Also inside, Apple's two hundred and ninety-nine pitch for your kitchen counter, the gas pipeline holding up Oracle's AI ambitions, and an inflation release that could interrupt everyone's earnings day plans.
0:40
Before the bell, for S&P 500 level was seven thousand eight hundred and sixty-six point two five compared with plus zero point one three percent for change.
0:51
For Nasdaq one hundred, level was thirty thousand seven hundred and thirty-five point two five compared with minus zero point one eight percent for change.
1:01
For Dow, level was fifty-two thousand eighty-five point zero zero compared with plus zero point two nine percent for change.
1:10
December contracts October fourteenth, seven O eight AM Eastern Time delayed Yahoo Finance quotes. Change versus prior close. Company snapshots below carry their own times. Zero one slash earnings ASML.
1:26
ASML can't build fast enough. ASML headquarters two thousand and eight archive. A. Anserm slash Wikimedia public domain.
1:36
ASML delivered eleven point six six billion euros of quarterly sales and four point nine six billion euros of net income. Its gross margin reached fifty-seven point five percent.
1:48
But the more interesting sentence concerned the next two years. Management says planned supply will not fully cover customer demand in either twenty twenty-seven or twenty twenty-eight.
1:59
Pre-market, the US-listed shares were one thousand seven hundred and sixteen dollars and eleven cents minus zero point one percent at seven eighteen AM Eastern Time.
2:11
A record quarter did not automatically produce a rally.
2:14
The company raised the floor of its annual sales outlook to forty-four billion euros to forty-five billion euros from forty-three billion euros to forty-five billion euros. That is a narrower range with the same ceiling.
2:30
Fourth quarter revenue is expected to reach fourteen point two billion euros to fifteen point two billion euros with gross margin around fifty-seven percent.
2:40
There is also money in improving machines customers already own. Installed base management sales reached three point two nine billion euros, helped by demand for productivity upgrades.
2:52
That business helped lift the quarter's margin above management's forecast. Customers can get more output from existing equipment while they wait for additional capacity.
3:03
For US chip investors, ASML offers a view of spending further up the supply chain. Its customers need equipment before they can manufacture the processors and memory that go into AI systems.
3:16
Strong demand here supports the expansion story, while shortages can push out the date when that spending becomes usable chip capacity. The trade is already popular.
3:27
BofA's October fund manager survey found a net thirty-seven percent overweight technology, up from thirty percent a month earlier and the highest reading since August twenty twenty.
3:38
That is a positioning measure, not the percentage of all assets held in tech. It helps explain why even impressive results face a demanding audience. Plenty of investors arrived expecting good news.
3:51
The question for the shares is how much faster earnings can grow than those expectations. See the positioning chart. ASML's investor call is scheduled for nine AM Eastern Time.
4:03
The useful follow-up is how much extra production it can deliver and when. Customer interest several years out gives management reason to expand.
4:12
Manufacturing and installing the machines is what turns that interest into revenue. Zero two slash earnings BAC. BofA's fine wasn't its only problem. Porter Ranch Branch two thousand and six archive.
4:27
Cool Caesar slash Wikimedia CC BY-SA three point zero. Bank of America earned one dollar and eight cents a share excluding a regulatory settlement charge versus one dollar and ten cents expected.
4:42
Revenue rose three percent to thirty billion dollars but missed the reported consensus by about five hundred and forty million dollars.
4:51
The one point two billion dollar settlement took another seventeen cents off earnings per share, leaving reported earnings at ninety-one cents.
5:00
Pre-market, BAC traded at fifty-one dollars and seventy-seven cents minus four point zero six percent at seven eighteen AM Eastern Time. Consensus comparison, Seeking Alpha. The lending engine improved.
5:15
Net interest income rose eight percent to sixteen point four billion dollars on the reported accounting basis. Higher loan and deposit balances, asset repricing and markets activity helped.
5:28
Average loans increased six percent and average deposits rose two percent. The trouble was elsewhere. Investment banking fees fell eleven percent to one point eight billion dollars.
5:41
Sales and trading revenue declined five percent to five point one billion dollars, with fixed income, currencies and commodities down seventeen percent.
5:51
Equities revenue grew eleven percent but could not offset the weaker businesses. Expenses did not stand still either.
6:00
Excluding the settlement, non-interest expense was eighteen point five billion dollars versus seventeen point three billion dollars a year earlier. That increase outpaced revenue growth.
6:12
The adjusted efficiency ratio rose to sixty-two percent from sixty percent. The bank spent more of each revenue dollar running the business. There was better news on credit.
6:24
Net charge-offs were about one point three billion dollars, down from one point four billion dollars both a year earlier and the previous quarter. Consumer credit and debit spending rose eight percent.
6:36
Those figures do not suggest that the earnings miss came from a sudden collapse in household activity. Morgan Stanley had a better morning.
6:44
Earnings per share of three dollars and three cents and revenue of twenty point three four billion dollars topped the two dollars and ninety-three cents and nineteen point nine three billion dollar expectations published by Market Beat.
6:58
Equity trading revenue jumped forty-one percent to five point eight billion dollars, while wealth management revenue reached a record nine point one billion dollars.
7:09
The contrast with B of A shows why bank earnings rarely tell one story.
7:15
Morgan Stanley also attracted two hundred and thirty-two billion dollars in wealth assets, though just over half came from IPO-related flows, a detail that matters when judging how repeatable that influx is.
7:27
See Morgan Stanley's business breakdown. The settlement explains the gap between reported and adjusted earnings per share. It does not explain away the adjusted miss.
7:37
On today's call, the important discussion is whether lending income can keep growing faster than the underlying expense base. Zero three slash earnings BLK. BlackRock's bigger prize is the fee mix.
7:51
Fifty Hudson Yards, twenty twenty-three archive. Dazzling four slash Wikimedia CC BYSA four point zero.
8:01
BlackRock reported fifteen dollars and ninety-three cents in adjusted earnings per share on seven point seven five billion dollars of revenue.
8:10
That topped the fourteen dollars and thirty-two cents and seven point four three billion dollar estimates reported by News Squawk.
8:18
Revenue rose nineteen percent and adjusted earnings per share increased thirty-eight percent from a year earlier.
8:25
Pre-market, shares traded at one thousand one hundred and twenty-one dollars, plus five point one five percent at seven:18 AM Eastern Time. See the earnings comparison.
8:37
Clients added two hundred and five billion dollar net during the quarter, taking assets under management to fifteen point four nine trillion dollars.
8:46
Long-term net inflows were about one hundred and seventy-five billion dollars. Cash management products supplied another thirty-one billion dollars. Rounded figures do not sum exactly.
8:58
The headline asset total is enormous, but the mix is more revealing. Private markets represented roughly two percent of assets and eleven percent of base fees and securities lending revenue.
9:12
Institutional index assets accounted for about twenty-five percent of assets and five percent of those fees. A dollar managed in one product can earn considerably more than a dollar in another.
9:25
That is why BlackRock's expansion into private credit and infrastructure matters to shareholders. The company brought in fifteen point three billion dollars of private market net inflows during the quarter.
9:38
Its larger ETF franchise collected about one hundred and thirty-five billion dollars, including strong fixed income demand. State Street offered another view of that growing asset pool.
9:51
It reported three dollars and sixty-nine cents in diluted earnings per share, up thirty-three percent on about four billion dollars of revenue, up thirteen percent.
10:02
Fee revenue rose eleven percent, while assets under custody or administration reached fifty-nine point two trillion dollars.
10:12
Those are assets its services, distinct from its six point three trillion dollars under management. The business benefits from handling the machinery behind investment accounts as well as managing money itself.
10:25
See State Street's revenue mix. There is a sizable accounting adjustment too. Reported earnings per share was ten dollars and fifty-seven cents.
10:35
BlackRock recorded a non-cash change in the value of contingent payments associated with earlier acquisitions among the items excluded from adjusted results. The earnings beat refers to the adjusted figure.
10:50
The useful shareholder question is how much of today's growth can repeat?
10:54
Higher markets help lift fees, but new client money and movement into higher fee products can strengthen earnings even without another broad rally.
11:04
Page two of the release makes that business mix unusually easy to compare. Mag seven plus three. Where big tech finished. Tuesday, October thirteenth, regular close USD daily change.
11:18
Mag seven plus AMD, Broadcom and Micron, our editorial watchlist. In the watchlist for this recorded session, seven stocks rose and three fell. Micron fell three point six two percent.
11:34
Meta rose two point six three percent. AMD rose one point nine percent. Meta led this ten-stock group. Micron was the largest decliner. These are closing returns separate from today's pre-market snapshots. I/Apple.
11:52
Apple wants a place on your kitchen counter. HomeView product image. Apple. Apple's new HomeView costs two hundred and ninety-nine dollars and arrives November thirteenth. Pre-orders open Tuesday.
12:05
The seven-inch display combines a speaker, FaceTime, entertainment, and smart home controls with Siri AI as the central selling point.
12:14
It recognizes different users and adapts the screen to their personal content The commercial idea is straightforward: give the household another reason to use Apple's devices and services throughout the day, including when nobody wants to hold a phone.
12:30
The fine print matters to that pitch. Siri AI arrives in beta with software version twenty-seven point two. Personal context requests require a paired compatible iPhone or iPad.
12:43
Some server-based AI features have daily usage limits, and Apple says expanded access will eventually carry a fee.
12:51
That gives investors two things to watch after launch, whether the hardware sells and whether people use the services enough to pay for more. Selling a screen once is one business.
13:03
Earning recurring revenue from it is another. Apple has announced neither a HomeView sales forecast nor the price of that future expanded AI access. For now, the test is practical.
13:15
The assistant needs to make everyday household tasks easier often enough that the screen stays useful after the novelty wears off. November's launch will provide a better answer than the product demonstration.
13:29
AI barra Oracle. Oracle needs gas before it can sell more compute. Oracle Austin Campus two thousand and eighteen archive, not Project Jupiter. Drone photographer slash Wikimedia CC0.
13:45
Oracle is pressing regulators to accelerate a gas pipeline needed for its New Mexico AI development.
13:53
An October thirteenth report from Crypto Briefing describes a letter from Oracle executive Josh Pitcock asking FERC to move faster on the Green Chile project.
14:04
The proposed pipeline runs roughly eighteen miles and would supply fuel for on-site power generation at Project Jupiter.
14:12
The report says the targeted in-service date has shifted from August twenty twenty-six to February twenty twenty-seven. That timetable is part of the existing delay, not a new postponement announced today.
14:24
The financial consequence is straightforward. A data center needs dependable electricity before customers can use the computing capacity.
14:33
Servers and buildings can absorb capital while the infrastructure connecting them to a reliable energy supply is unfinished. Oracle reportedly discussed trucking compressed gas as an interim option.
14:46
A workaround could help keep a timetable moving, but approval, construction, and a durable fuel supply still determine when the project can operate as intended. This is the less glamorous side of the AI build-out.
14:59
Demand for computing does not remove the need for permits, physical connections, and local construction.
15:07
For Oracle investors, the next concrete milestone is a regulatory decision and a credible route to power, not another headline about how large AI demand could become. Macro. Inflation gets the microphone at eight thirty.
15:22
September CPI is scheduled for today at eight thirty AM Eastern Time. Producer prices follow Thursday at the same time. Both were still ahead at this edition's market data cutoff.
15:34
Watch the monthly core reading and the bond market response alongside the headline number. A hotter release could put renewed pressure on rate-sensitive stocks, even where earnings are healthy.
15:46
A softer one would ease that pressure without automatically settling the Fed's next decision. Prediction markets. A pause is still the favorite.
15:56
At the seven eighteen AM Eastern Time check, Polymarket's October Fed contracts priced no change at about seventy-eight point five percent and a quarter point hike at nineteen point five percent.
16:08
Other outcomes carried small prices. Those are traded probabilities, not a central bank forecast. Today's inflation release can change them quickly. Upgrades slash downgrades. Barclays cools on hardware.
16:22
Dell cut to equal weight from overweight, target reduced to five hundred and seventy-four dollars from six hundred and three dollars.
16:30
HPE, the same rating downgrade, with its target cut to seventy-seven dollars from eighty-three dollars. NetApp also lowered to equal weight. Its two hundred and nineteen dollar target stayed unchanged.
16:44
The moves were reported this morning. Barclays is taking a more cautious view of enterprise hardware and valuations. A lower rating and a lower target are separate decisions. NetApp illustrates the difference.
16:58
Crypto overview. Bitcoin trades near eighty-three thousand three hundred dollars.
17:04
Bitcoin eighty-three thousand three hundred and thirty-nine dollars, Ether two thousand five hundred and two dollars from Coinbase spot quotes retrieved at seven eighteen AM Eastern Time.
17:16
These are price snapshots, not daily percentage changes. Coinbase shares one hundred and eighty dollars and sixty-three cents, minus zero point six four percent at seven fourteen AM Eastern Time pre-market.
17:31
The stock closed Tuesday at one hundred and eighty-one dollars and seventy-nine cents, up zero point seven eight percent. For coin, watch trading activity as well as coin prices.
17:43
Customer transactions generate fees, while a higher Bitcoin price alone does not tell us how much business the exchange is doing. That's cash and chaos. Find the full edition and original sources in the show notes.
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