The jobs report lands in 30 minutes.

The jobs report lands in 30 minutes.

Wall Street enters the release in a better mood. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% Thursday, mega-cap technology rallied and Treasury yields eased. But oil is still hovering near levels capable of complicating the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight.

The market wants a jobs number soft enough to restrain the Fed without confirming that the economy is sliding. That is a narrow landing strip.

Let’s get into it.

Economists expect August payroll growth of roughly 55,000, with the unemployment rate around 4.1% to 4.2%. That would be an improvement from July’s 23,000 decline, but still unusually weak by recent standards.

The warning lights are already flashing. ADP estimated that private employers added only 38,000 jobs in August, while recent revisions have made the labour market look softer than first reported.

Today’s headline matters, but traders will also inspect revisions, wage growth, hours worked and participation. A solid-looking payroll gain can lose its shine quickly if earlier months are revised lower.

Why it matters: With energy prices pushing inflation risk higher, the Fed needs cooler employment data before it can comfortably remain on the sidelines.

Stocks bounced: The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4% Thursday.

Asia followed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 2.1%, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.6% and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9% Friday.

Big Tech returned: Microsoft gained 2.7%, Meta rose 3%, Apple added 1% and Nvidia advanced 1.8%.

Oil stayed hot: Brent traded close to $96 a barrel and WTI near $92, keeping the inflation story alive.

Polymarket’s lower-volume payroll market places the most weight on two neighbouring outcomes: 0 to 50,000 jobs and 50,000 to 100,000 jobs.

Positioning is centred on a weak but positive report. A negative print or a result above 100,000 would therefore be the larger surprise.

Prediction market prices move continuously and may differ because each venue has its own rules, participants, liquidity and settlement terms.

Lululemon reported revenue of $2.4 billion, down 4%. Comparable sales fell 9%, including a 12% decline in the Americas. International comparable sales declined 3%, or 6% in constant currency.

Diluted earnings were $2.92 a share, but $0.86 came from tariff refunds and related interest. Those refunds also added about 560 basis points to gross margin. Strip out that benefit and the profit performance looks far less comforting.

Management expects third-quarter revenue to decline between 10% and 11%. Full-year revenue is projected at $10.35 billion to $10.50 billion, a decline of roughly 5% to 7%.

Incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill takes over next week. Her challenge is restoring product momentum while rivals fight for the same premium activewear customer.

Zscaler finished its fiscal year with quarterly revenue of $898.2 million, up 25%, and adjusted earnings of $1.19 a share. Annual recurring revenue reached $3.77 billion, also growing 25%.

As companies deploy autonomous AI agents, the number of non-human identities accessing sensitive systems expands. Zscaler wants its zero-trust platform to become the checkpoint between those agents, employees, applications and data.

Excluding Red Canary, ARR growth was about 20%, while quarterly free cash flow margin fell to 7%. Fiscal 2027 guidance implies revenue growth of roughly 17%, so Zscaler must prove AI adoption can offset the broader deceleration.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said cooler inflation could support holding rates steady, while another hot reading could justify a hike. Markets responded by lowering the implied probability of an increase.

Today’s jobs report answers only half the question. Weak employment may reduce demand-side pressure, but oil near $96 can still lift transport, production and household costs.