The Fed raised rates. Futures rose anyway.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Stocks finished lower. This morning, futures are trying a rebound as oil retreats. Wall Street has moved from guessing the decision to debating how much tightening comes next.

Today: the new rate path, a bruised sector map, Amazon's generator deal, and a homebuilder showing what expensive money looks like on an income statement.

First checkpoint: 8:30 AM ET. Jobless claims, housing starts, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed survey are still ahead in this pre-release edition.

The Fed voted 12–0 to lift its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Its statement described solid economic activity and resilient spending, while making clear that inflation remains elevated.

The median year-end rate projection is now 4.1%, versus 3.8% in June. That is consistent with one more quarter-point hike this year. The 2027 median is also 4.1%, up from 3.6%. These are policymakers' projections, not promised moves.

The Fed also raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% and its PCE inflation forecast to 3.7%. Our read: officials see enough economic resilience to keep fighting inflation, even while rate-sensitive businesses feel the squeeze.

CASH: BULLISH CASE
Cooling inflation and steady growth could let earnings support stocks through a modest tightening cycle.

CHAOS: BEARISH CASE
Persistent inflation could keep borrowing costs elevated and pressure valuations for longer.

The Dow lost 631 points; the Nasdaq finished almost flat. Small caps also slipped: the Russell 2000 fell 0.40% to 2,858.81. The market gave up its earlier gains after the Fed decision and press conference.

Energy and financials led the declines. Technology, health care and utilities managed small gains. These are sector ETF moves for September 16, as reported by ChartRow; they can differ from official sector-index returns.

GNRC: Amazon wants backup. Generac expects initial generator deliveries to Amazon worth $2.4 billion in 2027–2028. Amazon also received warrants for up to 1.69 million shares, with most vesting tied to payments. The $8 billion payment threshold in the warrant terms is not guaranteed revenue.

FLNC: A sharp guidance reset. Fluence cut expected fiscal 2026 revenue to about $2.4 billion from a $3.0 billion prior midpoint. It now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $200 million, versus a $10 million loss midpoint before, citing U.S. production delays.

Our read: Demand for power infrastructure can be strong while individual suppliers struggle to turn orders into shipments and cash.

At 4:45 AM ET, Reuters reported Dow futures up 0.66%, S&P 500 futures up 0.74%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.96%. These are early snapshots, not live quotes.

The same morning report put the CME-implied chance of an October hike at 51%, versus roughly 44% a day earlier. Rising futures and rising hike odds can coexist: traders may welcome a firmer inflation response while still pricing tighter policy.

Lennar reported quarterly revenue of $8.0 billion and GAAP earnings of $1.19 a share, versus $2.29 a year earlier. New orders fell 9% and deliveries fell 3%.

The pressure shows up in pricing: incentives were approximately 12%, while home-sales gross margin came in at 15.8%, down from 17.5% a year earlier. Management lowered its full-year delivery target to 80,000–81,000 homes from 82,000–83,000.

CASH: BULLISH CASE
Construction costs per square foot fell 6% year over year. Better execution gives Lennar a way to absorb some pricing pressure.

CHAOS: BEARISH CASE
Incentives and lower delivery expectations show affordability is still limiting demand. Higher borrowing costs could prolong that strain.

Listen at 11:00 AM ET: How much more support will buyers need, and what does that mean for margins?

At 4:01 AM ET, Reuters put Brent at $104.74 and WTI at $101.60, down about 1% and 0.8%, respectively. Both had fallen roughly $3 on Wednesday.

Reports of additional Saudi cargoes moving through Oman eased supply concerns. But repairs to damaged pumping stations on the East-West pipeline remain uncertain. Alternative shipments help; they do not establish that normal capacity has returned.

Our read: Sustained oil relief would help transportation costs and the inflation outlook. One morning's decline is too little to settle either question.

UNP: UBS upgraded Union Pacific from Neutral to Buy, with a $339 price target.

SMWB: Needham upgraded Similarweb from Hold to Buy, with an $11 target.

MTH: Truist downgraded Meritage Homes from Buy to Hold, with a $72 target.

These calls are from Briefing.com's September 16, 8:17 AM ET board. Targets are analyst opinions, not expected returns.

8:30 AM: Weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and August housing starts and building permits.

10:00 AM: August pending home sales.

11:00 AM: Lennar earnings call.

Watch whether labor demand remains firm, whether factories still report pricing pressure, and whether housing activity confirms the weakness described by builders. Together, those releases will help frame the next rate debate.

A durable rebound needs more than relief that the Fed meeting is over. Watch oil, borrowing costs and the breadth of stock gains. The next clues arrive before the opening bell.