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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026 • 8:00 AM ET • 7-MINUTE READ
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CASH &
CHAOS
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MARKETS, MONEY
AND THE MADNESS
IN BETWEEN.
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GOOD MORNING.
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Oil finally blinked.
Brent slipped below $95 overnight, Asian markets mostly stabilized and US futures edged higher. Tuesday’s shock has become Thursday’s relief—but relief is not resolution.
Broadcom has already reported. Today’s focus now shifts to a crowded 8:30 AM ET data window, the two services reports and Friday’s employment report.
Let’s get into it.
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THE BIG STORY
Oil cooled. Risk appetite came back.
Brent fell 1% to $94.69 a barrel overnight, while WTI slipped 0.9% to $90.18. The pullback followed comments suggesting the latest US campaign against Iran may not last much longer.
That gave markets room to breathe. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained 0.5% Wednesday, while the Dow added 0.6%, ending a three-session losing streak.
Asia was calmer Thursday. South Korea gained 0.3%, Japan slipped 0.2% and Hong Kong fell 0.6%. Australia gained 0.5%, while US futures edged higher.
Takeaway: Markets are trading the direction of oil, not just its level. Crude near $95 remains an inflation problem, but crude falling toward $95 feels very different from crude accelerating through it.
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QUICK HITS
Three things moving before the bell
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Broadcom delivered. Revenue reached $29.6 billion, AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7 billion and management guided to approximately $34.8 billion next quarter. Full breakdown below.
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2
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Asia stabilized—but did not celebrate. South Korea gained 0.3%, Australia rose 0.5%, Japan slipped 0.2% and Hong Kong fell 0.6%.
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3
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The Fed wager moved. Kalshi currently shows approximately 62% for a September 25-basis-point hike and 39% for no change, with about $29.6 million traded across the decision markets.
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The setup: Oil supplied the overnight relief. Today’s economic data will determine whether it survives the US session.
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MAKING MOVES
The overnight relief board
Oil eased, most Asian markets steadied and US futures pointed higher. Tuesday’s panic has not disappeared—it has simply stopped accelerating.
| Brent |
$94.69 |
−1.0% |
| WTI |
$90.18 |
−0.9% |
| KOSPI |
+0.3% |
| Nikkei 225 |
−0.2% |
| Hang Seng |
−0.6% |
| US futures |
EDGED HIGHER |
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THE ODDS BOARD
Where opinions have a price
Prediction markets are not prophecy. They show what traders currently believe when being wrong costs real money.
| Fed hikes 25 bps |
62% |
| Fed leaves rates unchanged |
39% |
The read: A quarter-point hike has become the clear favorite, but today’s services data and Friday’s employment report can still move the market.
Prediction-market prices change continuously and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a guaranteed forecast.
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UNDER THE RADAR
The 8:30 window is more crowded than it looks.
Initial claims are not arriving alone. July trade data and revised second-quarter productivity and labor-cost figures are also scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller is also scheduled to speak at 8:30. That creates several possible market catalysts at the same time, followed by final services PMI at 9:45 and ISM services at 10:00.
The relief trade has a short fuse. Softer activity or cost data could help it extend; stronger inflationary signals could quickly bring bond yields and oil sensitivity back into focus.
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STREET TALK
Carryover calls still in play
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Robinhood
Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight → Overweight · Target $124 → $150
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HOOD |
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Duolingo
Evercore ISI: In Line → Outperform · Target $105 → $210
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DUOL |
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Akamai
Piper Sandler: Neutral → Overweight · Target $125
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AKAM |
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EARNINGS DECODED
Broadcom cleared the bar.
Now the market decides how high the bar really was.
| Revenue |
$29.6B · +86% YoY |
| Non-GAAP EPS |
$3.32 |
| AI semiconductor revenue |
$16.7B · +221% YoY |
| Quarter-over-quarter AI growth |
+54% |
| Q4 revenue guidance |
Approx. $34.8B |
| Free cash flow |
$13.7B |
The numbers confirmed that demand for AI networking and custom silicon remains exceptionally strong. The complication is valuation: investors were already expecting exceptional execution.
The signal to watch is AVGO’s regular-session reaction—and whether strength spreads to the wider semiconductor group.
CASH — BULLISH
AI revenue accelerated, the quarterly numbers were strong and the forward guide moved higher. The fundamentals are bullish—even if sky-high expectations make the stock reaction less predictable.
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ON DECK
Today’s market calendar
| 8:30 AM ET |
Initial claims, July trade balance and revised Q2 productivity and costs |
| 8:30 AM ET |
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks |
| 9:45 AM ET |
S&P Global final US services PMI |
| 10:00 AM ET |
ISM services PMI |
| TOMORROW |
August employment report at 8:30 AM ET |
| AFTER CLOSE |
Lululemon, Zscaler, DocuSign, Samsara and UiPath report earnings |
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LAST WORD
Tuesday was panic.
Thursday begins with relief.
The data will decide whether markets get to keep it.
Stay curious. Stay sharp.
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