|
THE STOCK BOARD
Mag 7 + three chip names
Monday, September 28 premarket snapshots at 7:41–7:42 a.m. ET from Yahoo Finance. Changes are versus Friday’s regular-session closes. Prices can move before the open; these ten names are our editorial watchlist.
|
|
04 / TSMC · AI CAPACITY
TSMC’s customers are booking more room
Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and MediaTek have reportedly increased orders for TSMC’s 2nm-family capacity by 10–20%. Taiwan’s Economic Daily News, citing industry sources, says monthly capacity could reach approximately 120,000 wafers by year-end, versus earlier expectations of 90,000–100,000. These are reported industry estimates, not a fresh TSMC earnings forecast. The capacity report.
A wafer is the disc on which chips are manufactured. More wafer capacity lets TSMC produce more chips, but the number it can sell also depends on chip size and the share that work correctly after production.
The appeal for TSMC investors is straightforward: several competing designers need the same manufacturer. Apple can fight for smartphone share while AMD and Nvidia fight over computing budgets, and all can still generate business for TSMC.
More bookings are encouraging. The payoff depends on bringing factories into production economically. New equipment creates depreciation costs, and a difficult ramp can consume some of the benefit from higher sales.
We will get more evidence soon: TSMC’s calendar lists September sales on October 8 and third-quarter results on October 15. Those releases should help separate the strength of demand from the cost of meeting it. TSMC’s reporting calendar.
|
|
05 / MICRON · EARNINGS PREVIEW
Micron reports into a much bigger set of expectations
Micron gained 6.54% last week, but was down 1.75% at $1,063.38 in the 7:42 a.m. ET premarket snapshot. Stock quote. Its results arrive Wednesday, with the earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. Micron’s announcement.
The recent financial baseline is already enormous. For the quarter ended May 28, Micron reported $41.46 billion of revenue, compared with $9.30 billion a year earlier. DRAM contributed approximately $31.33 billion, while NAND contributed $9.94 billion. The quarterly filing.
DRAM provides working memory; NAND stores data. Both matter to the business, even when the conversation concentrates on high-bandwidth memory used alongside AI processors.
The earnings call should help answer whether revenue growth is coming mainly from shipping more memory, charging more for it, or selling a more valuable mix. Those routes can produce similar sales growth this quarter and very different outcomes later.
Micron also disclosed multi-year take-or-pay agreements with binding volume commitments; most have fixed prices or pricing floors and ceilings. In plain English, customers commit to paying for specified volumes rather than simply expressing interest. Management argues that these arrangements make its earnings more durable. That is a more useful counterargument to the usual memory boom-and-bust concern than another forecast for AI spending.
Wednesday’s call can tell us more about how much business those agreements cover and how the company plans to fund additional production. Protection on some contracts does not remove supply-and-demand risk from the rest of the business.
|
|
06 / AMPRIUS · BATTERY MANUFACTURING
A smaller stock with a fresh announcement: Amprius
Battery maker Amprius announced up to $75 million of U.S. government support for domestic production of high-energy-density batteries. The plan involves converting an existing battery line, with targeted annual capacity of 12 million cells by early 2028. Funding is tied to project milestones. The company’s announcement.
For scale, Amprius reported $34 million in second-quarter revenue, with a 27% gross margin and a roughly $5.1 million net loss. Latest quarterly results.
The grant could reduce the financing burden of expansion. It does not represent battery sales, and the factory still needs to reach production and attract orders. For a company this size, progress on those milestones can be more consequential than another broad prediction about the battery market.
|
|
UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES
Street calls: Pepsi gets a downgrade
Deutsche Bank cut PepsiCo from Buy to Hold and lowered its target from $155 to $138, citing doubts about the North American recovery. This is an actual rating downgrade, alongside a target cut. The analyst’s reasoning.
The point worth carrying into earnings season: a familiar brand and a cheaper stock do not automatically establish improving demand. Pepsi’s operating results need to make the recovery case.
|
|
PREDICTION MARKETS
Prediction markets: October is leaning toward another hike
At 7:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi’s October Fed market quoted a quarter-point hike at 66–67¢, versus 32–33¢ for no change. Those bid–ask prices imply traders favor another increase; they are market prices, not a Fed forecast. Follow the October contract.
For equities, Wednesday’s inflation data could change the financing and valuation assumptions sitting underneath otherwise encouraging company news.
|
|
THE MACRO MINUTE
Why Japan belongs on a U.S. investor’s screen
Japan’s two-year government yield reached 1.965% in Monday’s early trading. Higher returns at home can make Japanese investors less willing to own foreign bonds, depending on currency-hedging costs. The yield report.
Yen intervention creates another connection. Japan sells dollars to buy yen, but it does not have to fund every intervention through an outright Treasury sale. A Fed facility also allows it to obtain dollar liquidity against Treasuries. Reuters on Japan’s reserves and funding options.
U.S. borrowing costs are already elevated: Treasury’s official Friday reading was 5.17% for the 10-year and 5.49% for the 30-year. For homebuilders, REITs and companies refinancing debt, the cost of money matters alongside the direction of sales. Official Treasury rates.
|
|
THE WEEK AHEAD
Put these on the calendar
All times Eastern; these events are upcoming.
- Today, Monday: Trump is scheduled to make an announcement from the Oval Office at 2 p.m. The published White House guidance does not specify the topic. Today’s schedule.
- Tuesday: August job openings, 10 a.m. BLS schedule.
- Wednesday: August PCE inflation and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, 8:30 a.m. Micron’s call follows at 4:30 p.m. BEA schedule.
- Thursday: ISM manufacturing, 10 a.m. Nike’s results arrive at 4:15 p.m., followed by its 5 p.m. call. ISM calendar.
- Friday: September jobs report, 8:30 a.m. BLS employment schedule.
|
|
CRYPTO STOCKS, BRIEFLY
In the 7:42 a.m. ET premarket snapshot, Coinbase was flat at $195.11, while Strategy fell 1.22% to $156.68. Coinbase and Strategy quotes. Neither stock is a clean substitute for owning bitcoin; operating costs and financing decisions also affect shareholders.
|
|
Forwarded this email? Get Cash & Chaos in your inbox.
|
|
.jpg){kind=link}
