FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2026  /  10-MINUTE READ

CASH & CHAOS

MARKETS, MONEY AND THE MADNESS IN BETWEEN.

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THE OPENING BELL

Akamai lands $11.6 billion.
Now comes the bill.

Good morning. Akamai landed an enormous AI contract. Costco delivered another growing quarter. BlackBerry raised its outlook as car software did more of the work. The common thread is cash: when it arrives, what it costs to earn, and how much shareholders are paying for it.

The Akamai and Costco announcements arrived after Thursday’s close. We also unpack BlackBerry’s Thursday results, 7% mortgages and the new lawsuit facing Polymarket.

S&P 500 ETF
$767.18
-0.08%
NASDAQ-100 ETF
$741.10
-0.01%
DOW ETF
$512.68
-0.32%

September 24 U.S. close; changes versus September 23. ETF prices, not index levels or live premarket quotes.

01 / THE BIG STORY · AKAMAI

Akamai headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Akamai headquarters, 2019 file photo. PhotoFlight Aerial Media / Akamai, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

A huge customer. A very real cash gap.

Akamai announced a seven-year, $11.6 billion agreement with Anthropic after Thursday’s close. An expansion option could add approximately $9 billion. Keep those numbers separate: the larger opportunity depends on additional commitments.

The work supports Anthropic’s demand for computing infrastructure. For Akamai, it is a substantial opportunity to build a bigger cloud business. But the near-term economics look very different from the headline contract value.

The spending arrives first

Management’s investor presentation lays out the timing:

PERIOD PROJECT CAPEX PROJECT REVENUE
Q4 2026 ~$1.7B None
2027 ~$3.1B $150–300M
2028 ~$0.7B Ramping

Company estimates as of September 24. Approximately $5.5B total project capex. Service starts late Q2 2027; full contracted revenue run rate expected by end-2028.

At full scale, Akamai expects approximately $1.7 billion in annual revenue from the base agreement. That could make the investment meaningful for years. It also leaves a period when equipment spending is substantial and revenue remains small. Contracted demand reduces one uncertainty; it does not remove financing, delivery or operating costs.

There is a shareholder cost, too. Anthropic received warrants covering up to roughly 5% of Akamai’s shares: about 2% tied to the initial commitment, with the remainder linked to expansion. That is potential dilution under specified terms, rather than an immediate 5% increase in the share count.

The SEC filing adds a supply-chain detail: a Jabil arrangement authorizes approximately $1.7 billion of memory-component procurement. Capacity needs hardware secured ahead of service delivery. Investors should therefore track financing and equipment commitments alongside contract announcements.

Our read: The first test is whether the build stays within its capital budget and reaches service in late Q2 2027. A bigger backlog is valuable only if the resulting cash generation rewards the shareholders funding it.

02 / COSTCO · AFTER-CLOSE EARNINGS

Customers outside a Costco warehouse at dusk

Costco, 2021 file photo. Ambrosia LaFluer · CC BY 2.0

The earnings grew. The refund helped.

Costco’s fourth-quarter results show $95.72 billion of total revenue and $6.75 in diluted earnings per share. The 16-week quarter ended August 30. Revenue includes $1.85 billion of membership fees; merchandise net sales alone were $93.87 billion.

+6.7%
Comparable sales, ex fuel / FX
$6.75
Reported diluted EPS
$0.15
Nonrecurring EPS benefit

That 15-cent benefit came from tariff refunds, after some was reinvested in member value. Subtracting it gives $6.60—a simple calculation, not a company-issued adjusted EPS measure. It helps separate this quarter’s windfall from earnings that might recur.

Look beneath the receipt

Membership-fee revenue rose approximately 7.3%, calculated from the reported figures. Operating income increased about 13.8%, faster than total revenue’s roughly 11.1% growth. Together, those numbers support a stronger case than sales growth alone, although the reported profit still includes the refund effect.

The membership model gives Costco a reason to share savings with shoppers: a good deal can bring the customer back and make renewing feel worthwhile. Keeping every extra dollar as margin might flatter one quarter while weakening that proposition. Shareholders need to judge both the immediate profit and the durability of demand.

The valuation leaves little room for complacency. Thursday’s $896.48 close divided by the newly reported $20.76 full-year EPS is approximately 43.2 times trailing earnings. That is our calculation using a pre-results share price, not a forward multiple or a live quote.

The next useful evidence: Comparable sales excluding fuel and currency, membership growth and operating-profit growth together. A single strong quarter can support the business case without automatically making the stock inexpensive.

03 / BLACKBERRY · THURSDAY’S EARNINGS

Cars carry BlackBerry’s growth.

BlackBerry’s fiscal second-quarter release deserves a closer look beyond Thursday’s stock reaction. Revenue rose 26% to $163.3 million, while operating cash flow reached $29.3 million. The quarter ended August 31; the results were released Thursday morning.

+27%
QNX revenue growth
$80.3M
QNX quarterly revenue

Management raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $616–636 million.

QNX supplies software used in vehicles and other embedded systems. Its growth matters because a software platform selected during vehicle development can earn royalties as those vehicles enter production. Winning the design is the beginning of that relationship; production volumes help determine the eventual payoff.

Coretura, the Volvo Group–Daimler Truck venture, selected Alloy Kore for its commercial-vehicle software platform. BlackBerry says the win adds more than $100 million to QNX’s royalty backlog. That represents expected future business, not $100 million of current-quarter revenue.

The other division tells a different story

Secure Communications grew revenue just 2% to $60.9 million, while its segment adjusted EBITDA fell 18% to $8 million. QNX’s momentum therefore does not describe the whole company.

The stronger outlook gives investors something measurable to assess. The key is whether automotive programs turn into royalty revenue while the communications business protects profitability. One division can lift the group for a while; a healthier mix would make that growth less dependent on a single engine.

Read the measures separately: BlackBerry reported seven cents of adjusted basic EPS and six cents of GAAP basic EPS. Revenue growth, cash generation and the segment split tell us more together than an earnings-beat headline alone.

The 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2026

AI is moving from experiment… to essential.

Every major industry is integrating it.
Every major company is investing in it.

By late 2025, AI was already an $800B market — growing at a pace that could push it well beyond $1 trillion in the years ahead.

Cloud infrastructure is scaling fast.
AI-enabled devices are multiplying.
Automation is becoming standard.

But here’s the real question…

When trillions flow into this transformation — which stocks stand to benefit most?

Our new report reveals 10 AI stocks positioned across the backbone of this shift — from the companies powering the infrastructure… to those embedding intelligence into everyday systems.

If you want exposure to one of the defining growth trends of this decade, start here.

THE STOCK BOARD · COMPLETED SESSION

Meta led. The chip trade was split.

September 24 close. Mag 7 plus AMD, Broadcom and Micron: our editorial watchlist, not an official index.

STOCK CLOSE DAY
AAPL $335.92 -0.33%
MSFT $497.93 -0.53%
NVDA $224.58 -0.41%
AMZN $249.38 +0.04%
GOOGL $342.36 +1.34%
META $777.59 +4.50%
TSLA $377.94 -0.57%
AMD $629.26 +2.38%
AVGO $350.36 -1.30%
MU $1,080.53 +0.81%
 

Meta gained 4.50%, while AMD rose 2.38% and Broadcom fell 1.30%. Five of our ten stocks finished higher. A nearly flat Nasdaq-100 ETF concealed very different outcomes underneath; “AI stocks” did not move as one trade.

04 / AI INFRASTRUCTURE · STILL MATERIAL

Oracle puts the construction risk in writing.

A consequential carryover from Thursday: reporting on Project Jupiter says Oracle sent a force-majeure notice seeking protection from costs and payments if the New Mexico data-center campus is not operational by 2028. Oracle says the project remains on schedule.

The distinction matters. A notice asserting contractual protection does not establish that a project is cancelled or already late. Nor does the assertion alone prove the company will obtain the relief it seeks.

Who carries the waiting time?

A data center needs equipment, power and a functioning building before it can serve customers. If opening slips, somebody must carry financing costs while revenue waits. Contract terms help determine whether that burden sits with the tenant, developer or another counterparty.

For Oracle shareholders, demand and delivery deserve separate scrutiny. Customer commitments can be large while the physical capacity needed to fulfill them takes years to arrive. A protective clause might reduce one expense exposure without accelerating the revenue schedule.

Oracle closed Thursday down 3.47%. The useful follow-up is a confirmed construction timetable and any disclosed change to payment obligations—not treating a legal notice as proof that the entire AI buildout has failed.

05 / AI FRONTIER · ALPHABET + PLANET

Googleplex campus in Mountain View

Googleplex, 2019 file photo. Gregory Varnum · CC BY-SA 4.0

Google’s next chip test leaves Earth.

Google’s September 24 Project Suncatcher update puts a concrete test behind its orbital-computing idea: a prototype satellite carrying TPUs, Google’s AI processors, on the upcoming SpaceX Transporter-18 mission. Planet is the partner. Google says the first chips head to orbit next week.

The project was announced last year; this is a testing milestone. Engineers want to learn whether the hardware survives launch stresses and radiation, and whether its cooling system works in a vacuum. There is no airflow in space to carry heat away.

A later two-satellite test in 2027 is intended to examine the links between spacecraft. Running useful AI workloads across a fleet requires fast communication as well as working chips. Abundant sunlight does not, by itself, solve the whole computing problem.

The stock-market relevance: Alphabet is exploring a long-term response to computing and power constraints; Planet gains a prominent development partnership. Neither fact supplies a near-term earnings forecast. Flight results and a viable cost per unit of computing would make the commercial argument much stronger.

TWO MORE STOCKS ON THE RADAR

Rocket Lab / Iridium: Iridium announced shareholder approval Thursday after the vote that morning. Closing is expected in mid-2027, subject to remaining conditions. The consideration combines $27 cash with collared Rocket Lab stock; the $54 notional total is not guaranteed cash. The approval advances the deal without completing it.

GameStop: Ryan Cohen’s September 21 filing reports 1,150,680 shares bought at a weighted average $22.9375—approximately $26.4 million. This is Monday’s purchase, still attracting attention, rather than a new Friday transaction. Insider buying signals the buyer’s conviction; it does not itself add revenue to the operating business.

06 / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Comcast gets a downgrade. Akamai gets a higher target.

CMCSA · Rating downgrade: KeyBanc moved Comcast from Sector Weight to Underweight with an $18 target, according to Friday’s dated report. This changes the recommendation itself.

CMCSA · Target cut: Citi lowered its target from $30 to $27.50 while retaining Buy, reported overnight. The two calls show why “analysts cut Comcast” is incomplete: one firm is negative on the rating, while another still sees a buying case at a lower valuation.

AKAM · Target increase: TD Cowen raised its target from $140 to $149 and kept Hold, according to Friday’s report. A higher target alongside an unchanged neutral recommendation is not an upgrade.

Targets become useful when you know what changed underneath: an earnings forecast, a valuation multiple, or both. The actions above are reported calls; a target alone does not explain the full research argument.

07 / PREDICTION MARKETS

New York challenges Polymarket’s right to operate.

New York sued Polymarket US on Thursday, alleging that its event markets constitute unlicensed gambling. The state seeks an order stopping the alleged activity, financial penalties and restitution. These are allegations and requested remedies, not a court ruling.

Polymarket’s chief legal officer says the company will fight. The dispute is part of the larger battle over federal regulation of event contracts versus state gambling authority.

Our read: this matters to the economics of distribution. A market can attract demand yet face limits on where it operates. For listed brokers and betting companies, changing access and compliance costs could reshape competition; the lawsuit alone does not establish a winner.

Rates watch: Kalshi’s October Fed market displayed 67% for a quarter-point hike and 32% for no change at approximately 6:08 a.m. ET on September 25. Trader-implied probabilities; other outcomes and rounding apply.

08 / MACRO IN A MINUTE

7% mortgages put housing stocks back in focus.

Freddie Mac’s September 24 weekly survey puts the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03%, versus 6.95% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. This is a survey average, not a loan offer or an intraday quote.

For a hypothetical $400,000 loan over 30 years, that year-over-year rate change adds approximately $193 a month in principal and interest, with taxes and insurance excluded. That is our calculation holding the loan amount fixed.

For builders such as D.R. Horton and Lennar, the pressure can appear in slower orders or more costly buyer incentives. For home-improvement retailers, fewer moves can weigh on renovation demand. Watch order growth and margins together: supporting sales through discounts can come at a profit cost.

CRYPTO STOCKS, BRIEFLY

Thursday’s equity returns diverged: Strategy fell 0.36%, BitMine rose 2.08% and Coinbase gained 0.55%. These are completed-session stock moves, not live Bitcoin or Ether quotes. Different financing structures and operating businesses make the shares imperfect substitutes for the coins.

You’re caught up. Have a good weekend.

Cash & Chaos · Back next market session.

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